Business Operations

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Over the years as our personal computers have become faster and more powerful, our databases have change from being a flat file to relational to business intelligence technology we are using today. Talk about data overload! We can slice and dice the data any which way we want so we can end up with a sculpture by Michael Angelo or end up with something a child has made from Play-Doh.

I recently went to an evening event presented by Dr Daniel L Moody, The Art (and Science) of Diagramming, understanding cognitive effectiveness of diagrams. Reporting is also like a diagram, using numbers to tell a story. Business analytics reporting has be able to tell the users the answer from just looking at the report without having to decipher the data. As the saying goes, a picture tells a thousand words ;-) .

As we look at our data today we are overwhelmed with the information that is given to us on a daily basis. We need to pick out particular numbers from our databases to get the correct analysis of the data. As business analysts we need to create an experience for the user that will make it enjoyable for the reader to use, to create a visual effect with the data by not using graphs :shock: . The user of the report has a choice, “Do I want to look at the ugly report today telling me that my numbers are bad?” or “My report is out, let’s see how that report is going to tell me how I can fix my numbers”. Of course, my preference is the later, you don’t want to be doing all this work so nobody will look at your report.

The first thing most people do when they build a new report is somebody has said to them “so and so has a great report, let’s replicate it” or migrating to a new database without enhancing any of the reports. Take the original report and modify it to accommodate new data and/or analysis even though the original report was for another purpose. The report is continually modified, adjusted for the new business rules and ends up being a dog’s breakfast that nobody wants to use.

Using a sales forecasting model as an example to tell a story for the day to the year using the same story board so the users know the story being told, it is just the journey taken will be different.

Time Series Data
Imagine time, how do we envisage time in our heads, do we look down at time, look up at time or do we look at time as an horizon going across from left to right. Is time ever broken? Does it stop when we know we have an end point to go to? There are rest breaks but we still need to get to the end point. In business, our end point is always that target number.

Before the advent of computers people had their pens, paper and then came calculator. So when creating reports, there would be a point in time where analysis needed to be done. You would have your columns to a certain point in time then add the analysis column, figure 1, therefore the time series is broken and stops the train of thought.

For our brains to take in data logically, the data needs to be shown as a straight line to the end. In figure 2, shows the time series unbroken with the analysis at the end of the total time period. Your eyes will automatically scan across at the weekly data and monthly data without stopping and starting at each new month. This allows for the data to be analysed initially as the week and then monthly then to the quarter, from small to large.

Lists
Using the analogy of a shopping list. We go around the house, opening cupboards, listing vertically on shopping list paper which is thin and long. The shopping list paper has been designed vertically as it is easier to read while shopping . As we are writing the list, there are duplicates but are not the same. We don’t write it at the end of the list, and include the new item as part of the item previously listed. We want to get the item at the same time as the other product in the same aisle.

This is the same when looking at a report, looking down the list to see what variables we have to look at to analyse the data. As with the shopping list, it is natural to not want to read duplicates. Once a set of variables have been looked at, the reader does not want to see the same words again in a list. The first thing they think is, “What is the difference?”. There is no difference in the words just the analysis in time.

An aside, you may think that dates may also be listed vertically. Lists are infinite but in business analytics time periods are fixed to a period. Therefore reports may have indefinite analysis but only fixed time periods, figure 3. There are situations when time is listed vertically. I can only think when the time variables are small intervals and long time periods and the variables list is short. eg daily tracking files and bank statements, (and we all know how much we like looking at those, not :-( )

 

Creating the Story
Figure 4. Quarterly Sales Report

The report has been broken into 3 sections.

1. The actual data as inputted by the business.

2. Weekly analysis – Sales operations analysis for supply and demand planning, to ensure we are meeting weekly forecasts and are moving forward towards targets.

3. QTD analysis – Performance based analysis for finance to ensure sales are meeting initially forecasts and the quarter target.

Figure 5. Sales Operations Waterfall

Section 1 of the report shows a complete picture of the quarter, showing the different sources of data and specific time periods. These different sources and time periods are colour coded and follow throughout the report so the user can easily identify the sources of data or the analysis. This also allows the user to quickly glance at the data to understand the analysis.

1. When labelling, think about what you want the reader to concentrate on, the labels or the numbers. Ensure labels are easy to understand. There is already enough to read in these reports without having to read long labels, labels can be identified at the start of the columns without intruding on the numbers. Dates, create the date as a full month, 4/5/10, is this the 4th May or 5th April? It is easy enough to change the format to 4 May or Apr 5.

2. Inputs from the business – from finance for targets and initial forecasts by sales.

3. The weekly forecasts from sales by month by week and actuals. Note, if the waterfall had followed the same sequence as figure 1, we would not have a complete picture of the quarter and the waterfall. The waterfall will be a squashed picture of the quarter with missing analysis and an additional field, Figure 5a

4. A continuous view of the quarter forecast over the 13 weeks.

 

Figure 6. What are we analysing? 

Section 2 & 3 have the same analysis except section 2 is concentrating on the short term periods within the quarter and sales operations analysis for supply and demand planning. While section 3 is analysis for the quarter to ensure targets and initial forecasts are achieved, performance based analysis, eg commissions and business reporting periods.

1. Target vs Actuals, Target vs forecasts.

2. Forecast vs Actuals, Forecast vs previous week’s forecast.

3. To Go to Target, Initial forecast, Current forecast vs Last quarter and same quarter for last year.

Note, this list of variables could continue to include further analysis and business rules.

Figure 7. Time analysis.

As we slice the data the other way, we are now looking at the analysis in figure 6 but in relation to the past and the future.

1. What has happened
2. Where we are today
3. Where are we going and how we are going to get there
4. What has happened by month
5. Where are we going by month
6. Where are we going for the quarter

Figure 8. Sales analysis matrix for time.

Combining figure 6 and figure 7, we now have sales anlysis matrix for the quarter, where certain cells now can be ignored as time has passed and the eyes will concentrate on the data required to achieve the quarter targets.

1. Performance indicators vs Target
7. Performance indicators vs Forecast
d. Time has passed, so data can be ignored

2. Current situation vs Target
8. Current situation vs Forecast
e. Current situation vs previous quarter and same quarter last year.

3. Forecast vs target
9. WTW forecast
f.  How we are going to achieve our goals, Weekly Forecast vs historical

4. Performance indicators vs Target for month
a. Performance indicators vs Forecast for month
g. Time has passed, so data can be ignored

5. Forecast vs target by month
b. WTW forecast by month
h. Month Forecast vs historical

6. Forecast vs target for quarter 
c. WTW forecast for quarter
j. Quarter Forecast vs historical

 

Figure 9. For the Day to Year

By replicating the weekly model, we can have Monthly for Year and Daily for Week. We now have all the chapters of the story from Day to Week, Week to Quarter, Month to Year. The story is the same for each time period but the journey taken is different and for different purposes.

Figure 10. Other Dimensions.

 

Keeping the story the same, we can now create different journeys of our story depending on users purposes. We can now slice and dice the data any which way we like but keeping the story the same. The user now can move from journey to journey without the story changing.

Conclusion
According to Dr Daniel L Moody to achieve Cognitive Effectiveness in our diagrams we must have the following :

1. Discriminality
2. Modularity
3. Emphasis
4. Cognitive Integration
5. Perceptual Immediacy
6. Structure
7. Identification
8. Visual Effectiveness
9. Graphic Simplicity

 

Do I achieve this using the analogy of a report as a diagram?  Dr Moody was only able to discuss point no. 1, relating to IT diagramming which doesn’t really excite me. So you tell me. Was I successful in translating my numbers into a picture that tells a story?

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The Operations dashboard demonstrated that an organisation is able to split the decision and data, using profitability analysis to analyse decision in operations to mitigate short term risk of the business.

The business has to be able to apportion the different costs in all lines of business and market segments to the correct revenue stream. An internal transfer rate is a cost allocation that will apportion “To Build” costs by market segment.

The following set of diagrams will demonstrate the theory in allocating product costs to market segment using Internal Transfer Rates.

 The colour index code can be followed as we drill down through each diagram in the model.

Figure 7. Corporate Decision Structure for business operations.

Corporate Decision Structure based on Business Operations

The corporate decision structure demonstrates the different levels of decision making. The CEO, other CxOs down to Line of Business and Market Segment are involved in the long term strategy of the organisation : CAPEX, aquisitions or reinvest into business, taxes, interest and intangible assets. This is why the CxO’s are paid the big dollars and bigger bonuses to ensure the business reaches the organisation’s 5 year plan. 

Though, I don’t understand why some, undeservedly, get paid the big bonuses when these goals are not reached or before the end of the 5 years or their decision causes problems later on. “They” should make bonuses be paid over time, eg, the length of the investment decision made. Then “they” would have to suffer like the rest of us. Just my rant:-|

Business operations must align with the long term strategy of the organisation. To make the business operate the organisation needs all the solid blocks, above, to reach the long term goals but the business needs to mitigate short term risks within these blocks. 

The business has to analyse the decisions made for product and relate the decisions to a revenue stream within market segment. There is a need to split all lines of business, decision and cost, into the different market segments. This is to ensure that decisions made for one product does not affect the market segments and other lines of business. The business cannot make decisions on the cost of one product only as market segments and lines of business are interrelated.

Figure 5. Level 2 Operations dashboard by Product by Market Segment. (in the ops dashboard , as by Market by Lines of Business).

Telco Dashboard

The business also has to split the blocks of Line of Business in Figure 7 to be the proportions of the “to Build” and “Other Expenses (LOB)”, in figure 5. The business will build the product as a sum total of the business as it would be inefficient to have different production lines for different segments making the same product. These proportions will differ by market segment depending on demand. 

Internal Transfer Rates

Internal transfer rates are costs that are allocated by line of business to the market segments. The internal transfer rate is to allow the analysis for product profitability by market segment. These rates are based on the total planned demand for the year and the total costs to operate the line of business.

The “To Build” and “Other Exp (LOB)”, in figure 5, costs will be initially allocated to all to build costs. The other expenses should not exist in a perfect business model that is working towards demand, if the business is over supplying, these excess capacities will be shown in other expenses.

Figure 8. Annual planned demand by market segment and budget cost to supply by product.

Calculation of Internal Transfer Rates

The internal transfer rate is based on total planned demand and total budget costs to build the product. The unit cost can allocate the total costs by the proportion of actual units sold by market segment.

Figure 9. “To Build” and “Other Exp (LOB)” cost allocation by market segment.

General Ledger vs Product profitability for costs at time point X.

Calculation of actual product costs to build by Market Segment

The effect the transfer rate has on the product profitability analysis will show the actual costs based on actuals sales by product by market segment. The delta between the total actual cost from the general ledger and the calculated costs from the transfer rate will give the “Other Expenses (LOB)”.

Other Expenses (LOB) :

1. Will never be negative,

a) The business will always plan to have excess capacities for any unforeseen demand
b) To ensure service level agreements
c) Seasonal skews
d) Other costs to support the line of business

2. If negative,

a) The line of business is over charging market segments with the transfers rates and overstating initial costs, therefore budget costs for product are higher than the actual costs, and
b) There has been an unexpected windfall in cost reductions :lol:

 

Figure 10. Level 2 Operations dashboard by Market by Line of Business. 

Enterprise Dashboard including Product Decision Analysis 

The profitability analysis for product by market segment show the actual costs “To Build” using actual units sold and the transfer rate.  The General Ledger is able to apportion the costs into “To Build” and “Other Exp (LOB)”. The operations dashboard now has the additional margin analysis, Product Variable Margin. The business can now measure decisions made for product by market segment.

Conclusion

The internal transfer rate will apportion the “To Build” cost by market segment. This will allow the business to identify and mesure decisions made for product by market segment to mitigate short term risks in operations within product.

 

 

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With the world growing smaller and smaller and with the mobility of our labour force we are using services that are not in the same country that we reside in and without the expected results.

I have had a recent problem with my web site. And of course my host is not in Australia. I found that with customer service it is better to avoid talking to customer service reps (After Sales Service…) so it is much easier to use email as you will get an answer you can follow and also avoiding accents, I am slightly tonal deaf so I have trouble understanding sometimes.

I could not get access to my website. My mistake I actually rang the help desk, ha! I hung up feeling without any satisfaction from their answer. It was, “We can see it, so it must be your ISP”. I fiddle around with the computer and find something called trace route, this looks good. It shows that it gets all the way out of Australia and into the secondary country then to the host and then times out and goes somewhere else.

I send these details to help desk to generate a ticket number. I get a reply, “we can see it and says that it is going through our server, please print the error message you are receiving”. I mean you know the error message you get from IE, “Internet Explorer cannot access the page”! I send and get no reply. I speak to my ISP and send another note with another trace route attached. No response. I go next door as they have a different ISP and cannot access website and send another note. After my initial call, 8 notes and 20 hours later, I received a response “due to the complexity of the problem, it has been relayed to our advance technically team”. Another 5 hours later, “Service will return to normal as soon as possible. Unfortunately, we are unable to give a specific time frame for this resolution… Due to history of this ticket we are offering you the opportunity to be called directly…”

Over 36 hours later I finally have access to my website. I do take up their offer of a phone call because I want to understand what happened so it does not occur again. The customer service rep starts going through all the times and the notes I had sent to them. What is the point of that? I know what I sent to them and when, I had a very frustrating day trying to get through to them. Then he says it was a server issue. I know that, I knew from the beginning. But what was the issue? He starts again, repeating details I already knew and already repeated. He would not stop. I had to rudely interrupt him as I did not want to hear the same thing again. I asked him what was the issue with the server? He starts repeating again. “There was an issue with the server”. Yeah, but what? “There was an issue with the server”.

What is the point of offering a customer a call when they are just going to irritate the customer by telling them that they had a frustrating day and no answer to the question asked?

And then, “Is there anything else I can help you with, ma’am?” No.

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Seth Godin recently wrote “When data and decisions collide”. Over the next posts I will describe a model where decisions and data do not collide.

 Organisations make decisions for the business based on reports from various sources. The long term objective of any profit-organisation is the business must be running to profit, otherwise no reason for business to exist other than for passion.

Revenue and costs are the key drivers to this objective. These decisions are made within the operations of the business to ensure the business is running to profit. Marketing strategies, supply and demand decisions and to service customer while running the business to long term strategies.

Most decisions are made reactive. The first question management asks “Why?” Everybody jumps to ensure at the current point in time that the business is not going towards plan. Usually means the sales team has to work harder or we cut costs to deliver the product to the consumer so people may lose their jobs.

This response to data does not take into consideration the reaction the decisions may have an effect on other parts of the business. There is no correlation between the market segments and the different products.

The following model will show that the data will allow the organisation to make concise decisions for the business without affecting other parts of the business. This model will use investor flow value and profitability analysis as inputs to decisions and then the decisions measurable on the profit and loss statement. This model only takes into account what is measurable in the profit and loss statement and does not take into account the outside the business environment intrinsic decisions stakeholders must take when making decisions, though these decisions will be minor with the analysis.

Measuring Operations

A dashboard is a set of metrics showing a business’s performance at a particular point in time. The model must be able to roll up and drill down to all levels of line of business, market segments and line items on the profit & loss statement.

An operations dashboard is to mitigate risks resulting from decisions in an organisation’s short term strategy for product, delivery and service without affecting the business’s long term strategy and profitability.

An operations dashboard for a matrix organisation is to ensure decision made in one customer segment and/or line of business will not affect the long term strategy of the business within market segment and line of business.

The following set of diagrams will show the theory in creating an Operations Dashboard, drilling down from the business model to the dashboard based on the investor value flow of the business’s decisions and profitability analysis.

The colour index code can be followed as we drill down through each diagram in the model.
Purple – Investor interests
Aqua – Decisions made by the business from investment to customer
Navy Blue – Profit & Loss metrics
Yellow – Decisions and Metrics related to Operations
Light Blue – Decisions and Metrics related to Line of business
Orange – Decisions and Metrics related to Market segment
Dark Green – Operating Divisions

Figure 1. Investor value flow from investment to customer to return on investment.

Investor value flow for business model 

The investor will invest capital in a company based on a long term strategy of the business and their products. The right side triangle is the “decision side”, showing as we build the product to the customer the business makes decisions on the end product. As the decisions are made the money from the capital investment which is now an operating expense is reduced as each step of the product is delivered to the customer.

The left side triangle shows profitability analysis using the profit and loss statement. The business generates revenue from the customer. Decisions for product, delivery and service made from the right triangle have costs associated with profitability including depreciation and amortisation on capital.

The business will make decisions on their capital investment based on long and short term strategies related on the customer and line of business which has an affect on profitability which in turn affects ROI for investor.

Figure 2. Investor value flow based on the individual components of business operations for a matrix organisation.

Investor Value Flow for Matrix Organisation 

The ROI is based on the flow of decisions made by the business on individual components within business operations.

Decisions on capital expenditure, product costs are made by line of business. Decisions on delivery and service to customer are made by market segment. But these decisions are not independent of each other. Long term strategy and mitigating short term risks are interrelated to the market segment and the line of business. 

Figure 3. Profitabilty analysis based on long term strategies by line of business.

Profit & Loss statement by Line of Business  

The profit & loss metrics are based on the market segment and line of business. Figure 3, line of business dashboard, shows investor value flow to net profit based on capital expenditure. This is an indicator of long term strategies. Showing total operating profit based on mitigating short term risks and total profitability for the reporting period.

To seperate data and decision the business must also be able to seperate the cost by line of business to deliver the goods & services and the revenue stream by market segment.

Operations Dashboard

The metric used to measure operating performance is EBITDA as the depreciation and amortisation deals with the initial capital expenditure based on the line of business. The driver of EBITDA is revenue, revenue is generated by market segment.

Figure 4. Operations Dashboard by Market Segment.

Operations Dashboard  

The operation dashboard is an indicator of short term strategies are in line with the business’s long term strategy and will give a clear indicator of operating costs by market segment. Metrics are a combination of market segment and line of business.

Figure 5. Level 2 Operations dashboard by Market by Line of business.

Enterprise Dashboard 

The business is now able to separate decision and the metric by market segment, by line of business and by operating division.

The dashboard will allow each solid block in Figure 5 to be drilled down further into individual line items of the P&L of market segment and of line of business.

The dashboard will also allow the metrics to be roll up to Figure 3, by Line of business. Figure 6 shows the P&L to net profit. The operations is the consolidation of Figure 5.
 
Figure 6. Profitability analysis based on long term strategies by Market segment and Line of business

Profitability Analysis for Total Operations by Line of Business 

Conclusion

The operations dashboard will analyse decisions made by market segment and line of business to mitigate short term risks in the operating divisions using profitability analysis. The dashboard will be able to identify all items related to the goods & services provided to the customer and analyse of the mix of market segment and line of business.

The further analysis below will add further depth into the dashboard to be a management reporting system.
 

Further Analysis

1. Cost analysis
- Cost allocation
- Shared and dedicated cost
- Incremental and fixed costs
- Capacity Costing
- Cost recovery of capital expenditure

2. Key performance indicator analysis
- Revenue units
- Costs units

3. Budget, Target and Forecast analysis
- 5, 10 year plans
- Annual budgets
- Quarterly, monthly, weekly

4. Historical analysis
- Business Plan
- Year to Year
- Quarter to Quarter

5. Strategic analysis
- Long term
- Short term
- OPEX vs CAPEX

6. *** Management reporting system ***

 

Next post for Dashboard ->  Internal Transfer Rates

 

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