Data Analytics

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Over the years as our personal computers have become faster and more powerful, our databases have change from being a flat file to relational to business intelligence technology we are using today. Talk about data overload! We can slice and dice the data any which way we want so we can end up with a sculpture by Michael Angelo or end up with something a child has made from Play-Doh.

I recently went to an evening event presented by Dr Daniel L Moody, The Art (and Science) of Diagramming, understanding cognitive effectiveness of diagrams. Reporting is also like a diagram, using numbers to tell a story. Business analytics reporting has be able to tell the users the answer from just looking at the report without having to decipher the data. As the saying goes, a picture tells a thousand words ;-) .

As we look at our data today we are overwhelmed with the information that is given to us on a daily basis. We need to pick out particular numbers from our databases to get the correct analysis of the data. As business analysts we need to create an experience for the user that will make it enjoyable for the reader to use, to create a visual effect with the data by not using graphs :shock: . The user of the report has a choice, “Do I want to look at the ugly report today telling me that my numbers are bad?” or “My report is out, let’s see how that report is going to tell me how I can fix my numbers”. Of course, my preference is the later, you don’t want to be doing all this work so nobody will look at your report.

The first thing most people do when they build a new report is somebody has said to them “so and so has a great report, let’s replicate it” or migrating to a new database without enhancing any of the reports. Take the original report and modify it to accommodate new data and/or analysis even though the original report was for another purpose. The report is continually modified, adjusted for the new business rules and ends up being a dog’s breakfast that nobody wants to use.

Using a sales forecasting model as an example to tell a story for the day to the year using the same story board so the users know the story being told, it is just the journey taken will be different.

Time Series Data
Imagine time, how do we envisage time in our heads, do we look down at time, look up at time or do we look at time as an horizon going across from left to right. Is time ever broken? Does it stop when we know we have an end point to go to? There are rest breaks but we still need to get to the end point. In business, our end point is always that target number.

Before the advent of computers people had their pens, paper and then came calculator. So when creating reports, there would be a point in time where analysis needed to be done. You would have your columns to a certain point in time then add the analysis column, figure 1, therefore the time series is broken and stops the train of thought.

For our brains to take in data logically, the data needs to be shown as a straight line to the end. In figure 2, shows the time series unbroken with the analysis at the end of the total time period. Your eyes will automatically scan across at the weekly data and monthly data without stopping and starting at each new month. This allows for the data to be analysed initially as the week and then monthly then to the quarter, from small to large.

Lists
Using the analogy of a shopping list. We go around the house, opening cupboards, listing vertically on shopping list paper which is thin and long. The shopping list paper has been designed vertically as it is easier to read while shopping . As we are writing the list, there are duplicates but are not the same. We don’t write it at the end of the list, and include the new item as part of the item previously listed. We want to get the item at the same time as the other product in the same aisle.

This is the same when looking at a report, looking down the list to see what variables we have to look at to analyse the data. As with the shopping list, it is natural to not want to read duplicates. Once a set of variables have been looked at, the reader does not want to see the same words again in a list. The first thing they think is, “What is the difference?”. There is no difference in the words just the analysis in time.

An aside, you may think that dates may also be listed vertically. Lists are infinite but in business analytics time periods are fixed to a period. Therefore reports may have indefinite analysis but only fixed time periods, figure 3. There are situations when time is listed vertically. I can only think when the time variables are small intervals and long time periods and the variables list is short. eg daily tracking files and bank statements, (and we all know how much we like looking at those, not :-( )

 

Creating the Story
Figure 4. Quarterly Sales Report

The report has been broken into 3 sections.

1. The actual data as inputted by the business.

2. Weekly analysis – Sales operations analysis for supply and demand planning, to ensure we are meeting weekly forecasts and are moving forward towards targets.

3. QTD analysis – Performance based analysis for finance to ensure sales are meeting initially forecasts and the quarter target.

Figure 5. Sales Operations Waterfall

Section 1 of the report shows a complete picture of the quarter, showing the different sources of data and specific time periods. These different sources and time periods are colour coded and follow throughout the report so the user can easily identify the sources of data or the analysis. This also allows the user to quickly glance at the data to understand the analysis.

1. When labelling, think about what you want the reader to concentrate on, the labels or the numbers. Ensure labels are easy to understand. There is already enough to read in these reports without having to read long labels, labels can be identified at the start of the columns without intruding on the numbers. Dates, create the date as a full month, 4/5/10, is this the 4th May or 5th April? It is easy enough to change the format to 4 May or Apr 5.

2. Inputs from the business – from finance for targets and initial forecasts by sales.

3. The weekly forecasts from sales by month by week and actuals. Note, if the waterfall had followed the same sequence as figure 1, we would not have a complete picture of the quarter and the waterfall. The waterfall will be a squashed picture of the quarter with missing analysis and an additional field, Figure 5a

4. A continuous view of the quarter forecast over the 13 weeks.

 

Figure 6. What are we analysing? 

Section 2 & 3 have the same analysis except section 2 is concentrating on the short term periods within the quarter and sales operations analysis for supply and demand planning. While section 3 is analysis for the quarter to ensure targets and initial forecasts are achieved, performance based analysis, eg commissions and business reporting periods.

1. Target vs Actuals, Target vs forecasts.

2. Forecast vs Actuals, Forecast vs previous week’s forecast.

3. To Go to Target, Initial forecast, Current forecast vs Last quarter and same quarter for last year.

Note, this list of variables could continue to include further analysis and business rules.

Figure 7. Time analysis.

As we slice the data the other way, we are now looking at the analysis in figure 6 but in relation to the past and the future.

1. What has happened
2. Where we are today
3. Where are we going and how we are going to get there
4. What has happened by month
5. Where are we going by month
6. Where are we going for the quarter

Figure 8. Sales analysis matrix for time.

Combining figure 6 and figure 7, we now have sales anlysis matrix for the quarter, where certain cells now can be ignored as time has passed and the eyes will concentrate on the data required to achieve the quarter targets.

1. Performance indicators vs Target
7. Performance indicators vs Forecast
d. Time has passed, so data can be ignored

2. Current situation vs Target
8. Current situation vs Forecast
e. Current situation vs previous quarter and same quarter last year.

3. Forecast vs target
9. WTW forecast
f.  How we are going to achieve our goals, Weekly Forecast vs historical

4. Performance indicators vs Target for month
a. Performance indicators vs Forecast for month
g. Time has passed, so data can be ignored

5. Forecast vs target by month
b. WTW forecast by month
h. Month Forecast vs historical

6. Forecast vs target for quarter 
c. WTW forecast for quarter
j. Quarter Forecast vs historical

 

Figure 9. For the Day to Year

By replicating the weekly model, we can have Monthly for Year and Daily for Week. We now have all the chapters of the story from Day to Week, Week to Quarter, Month to Year. The story is the same for each time period but the journey taken is different and for different purposes.

Figure 10. Other Dimensions.

 

Keeping the story the same, we can now create different journeys of our story depending on users purposes. We can now slice and dice the data any which way we like but keeping the story the same. The user now can move from journey to journey without the story changing.

Conclusion
According to Dr Daniel L Moody to achieve Cognitive Effectiveness in our diagrams we must have the following :

1. Discriminality
2. Modularity
3. Emphasis
4. Cognitive Integration
5. Perceptual Immediacy
6. Structure
7. Identification
8. Visual Effectiveness
9. Graphic Simplicity

 

Do I achieve this using the analogy of a report as a diagram?  Dr Moody was only able to discuss point no. 1, relating to IT diagramming which doesn’t really excite me. So you tell me. Was I successful in translating my numbers into a picture that tells a story?

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I was watching the late night news when a program that is shown at an earlier time The 7pm Project came on. I usually don’t watch at that time as I am watching the ABC news. This was on the Friday, 4th December.

Dr Karl was being interviewed about his science. There was an item regarding how all of mankind had originated from the east coast of Africa. At the end they were discussing the analysis of the data. Out of blue Dr Karl says, “Statisticians are the sluts of the maths world” as quoted by Adam Spencer. I have gone back to the original clip online but the segment has been cut out. I wonder why?

So there I was sitting, thinking I am a slut of the maths world. Hmmm. My sister would be laughing her head off if she heard anybody call me a slut! Something I cannot imagine, I don’t think anybody can. Making love with maths. :-|

What is a slut? A floozy. I remember when I was young, being crazy in nightclubs and friends calling me a floozy, “go on, flitter away”.  What was I doing? Going around and saying “hello” to all my friends in all areas of the club. Nothing wrong with that, I had a wide variety of friends with all different backgrounds.

If this is the case, that I can take my maths where ever I like, where people from all different disciplines know that I will understand them, know what they are trying to do with the numbers and they will understand my analysis. Then I don’t mind being called a slut of the maths world, not many people can say that they can understand maths which ever way you look at it.

So Adam, you are just jealous that I can take my maths to any discipline, whether corporate or research and any industry. Yes, I am a slut of the maths world but I am proud of being able to understand the numbers, interpret so people can understand and use the analysis in the manner required. 8)

 

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The Operations dashboard demonstrated that an organisation is able to split the decision and data, using profitability analysis to analyse decision in operations to mitigate short term risk of the business.

The business has to be able to apportion the different costs in all lines of business and market segments to the correct revenue stream. An internal transfer rate is a cost allocation that will apportion “To Build” costs by market segment.

The following set of diagrams will demonstrate the theory in allocating product costs to market segment using Internal Transfer Rates.

 The colour index code can be followed as we drill down through each diagram in the model.

Figure 7. Corporate Decision Structure for business operations.

Corporate Decision Structure based on Business Operations

The corporate decision structure demonstrates the different levels of decision making. The CEO, other CxOs down to Line of Business and Market Segment are involved in the long term strategy of the organisation : CAPEX, aquisitions or reinvest into business, taxes, interest and intangible assets. This is why the CxO’s are paid the big dollars and bigger bonuses to ensure the business reaches the organisation’s 5 year plan. 

Though, I don’t understand why some, undeservedly, get paid the big bonuses when these goals are not reached or before the end of the 5 years or their decision causes problems later on. “They” should make bonuses be paid over time, eg, the length of the investment decision made. Then “they” would have to suffer like the rest of us. Just my rant:-|

Business operations must align with the long term strategy of the organisation. To make the business operate the organisation needs all the solid blocks, above, to reach the long term goals but the business needs to mitigate short term risks within these blocks. 

The business has to analyse the decisions made for product and relate the decisions to a revenue stream within market segment. There is a need to split all lines of business, decision and cost, into the different market segments. This is to ensure that decisions made for one product does not affect the market segments and other lines of business. The business cannot make decisions on the cost of one product only as market segments and lines of business are interrelated.

Figure 5. Level 2 Operations dashboard by Product by Market Segment. (in the ops dashboard , as by Market by Lines of Business).

Telco Dashboard

The business also has to split the blocks of Line of Business in Figure 7 to be the proportions of the “to Build” and “Other Expenses (LOB)”, in figure 5. The business will build the product as a sum total of the business as it would be inefficient to have different production lines for different segments making the same product. These proportions will differ by market segment depending on demand. 

Internal Transfer Rates

Internal transfer rates are costs that are allocated by line of business to the market segments. The internal transfer rate is to allow the analysis for product profitability by market segment. These rates are based on the total planned demand for the year and the total costs to operate the line of business.

The “To Build” and “Other Exp (LOB)”, in figure 5, costs will be initially allocated to all to build costs. The other expenses should not exist in a perfect business model that is working towards demand, if the business is over supplying, these excess capacities will be shown in other expenses.

Figure 8. Annual planned demand by market segment and budget cost to supply by product.

Calculation of Internal Transfer Rates

The internal transfer rate is based on total planned demand and total budget costs to build the product. The unit cost can allocate the total costs by the proportion of actual units sold by market segment.

Figure 9. “To Build” and “Other Exp (LOB)” cost allocation by market segment.

General Ledger vs Product profitability for costs at time point X.

Calculation of actual product costs to build by Market Segment

The effect the transfer rate has on the product profitability analysis will show the actual costs based on actuals sales by product by market segment. The delta between the total actual cost from the general ledger and the calculated costs from the transfer rate will give the “Other Expenses (LOB)”.

Other Expenses (LOB) :

1. Will never be negative,

a) The business will always plan to have excess capacities for any unforeseen demand
b) To ensure service level agreements
c) Seasonal skews
d) Other costs to support the line of business

2. If negative,

a) The line of business is over charging market segments with the transfers rates and overstating initial costs, therefore budget costs for product are higher than the actual costs, and
b) There has been an unexpected windfall in cost reductions :lol:

 

Figure 10. Level 2 Operations dashboard by Market by Line of Business. 

Enterprise Dashboard including Product Decision Analysis 

The profitability analysis for product by market segment show the actual costs “To Build” using actual units sold and the transfer rate.  The General Ledger is able to apportion the costs into “To Build” and “Other Exp (LOB)”. The operations dashboard now has the additional margin analysis, Product Variable Margin. The business can now measure decisions made for product by market segment.

Conclusion

The internal transfer rate will apportion the “To Build” cost by market segment. This will allow the business to identify and mesure decisions made for product by market segment to mitigate short term risks in operations within product.

 

 

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Seth Godin recently wrote “When data and decisions collide”. Over the next posts I will describe a model where decisions and data do not collide.

 Organisations make decisions for the business based on reports from various sources. The long term objective of any profit-organisation is the business must be running to profit, otherwise no reason for business to exist other than for passion.

Revenue and costs are the key drivers to this objective. These decisions are made within the operations of the business to ensure the business is running to profit. Marketing strategies, supply and demand decisions and to service customer while running the business to long term strategies.

Most decisions are made reactive. The first question management asks “Why?” Everybody jumps to ensure at the current point in time that the business is not going towards plan. Usually means the sales team has to work harder or we cut costs to deliver the product to the consumer so people may lose their jobs.

This response to data does not take into consideration the reaction the decisions may have an effect on other parts of the business. There is no correlation between the market segments and the different products.

The following model will show that the data will allow the organisation to make concise decisions for the business without affecting other parts of the business. This model will use investor flow value and profitability analysis as inputs to decisions and then the decisions measurable on the profit and loss statement. This model only takes into account what is measurable in the profit and loss statement and does not take into account the outside the business environment intrinsic decisions stakeholders must take when making decisions, though these decisions will be minor with the analysis.

Measuring Operations

A dashboard is a set of metrics showing a business’s performance at a particular point in time. The model must be able to roll up and drill down to all levels of line of business, market segments and line items on the profit & loss statement.

An operations dashboard is to mitigate risks resulting from decisions in an organisation’s short term strategy for product, delivery and service without affecting the business’s long term strategy and profitability.

An operations dashboard for a matrix organisation is to ensure decision made in one customer segment and/or line of business will not affect the long term strategy of the business within market segment and line of business.

The following set of diagrams will show the theory in creating an Operations Dashboard, drilling down from the business model to the dashboard based on the investor value flow of the business’s decisions and profitability analysis.

The colour index code can be followed as we drill down through each diagram in the model.
Purple – Investor interests
Aqua – Decisions made by the business from investment to customer
Navy Blue – Profit & Loss metrics
Yellow – Decisions and Metrics related to Operations
Light Blue – Decisions and Metrics related to Line of business
Orange – Decisions and Metrics related to Market segment
Dark Green – Operating Divisions

Figure 1. Investor value flow from investment to customer to return on investment.

Investor value flow for business model 

The investor will invest capital in a company based on a long term strategy of the business and their products. The right side triangle is the “decision side”, showing as we build the product to the customer the business makes decisions on the end product. As the decisions are made the money from the capital investment which is now an operating expense is reduced as each step of the product is delivered to the customer.

The left side triangle shows profitability analysis using the profit and loss statement. The business generates revenue from the customer. Decisions for product, delivery and service made from the right triangle have costs associated with profitability including depreciation and amortisation on capital.

The business will make decisions on their capital investment based on long and short term strategies related on the customer and line of business which has an affect on profitability which in turn affects ROI for investor.

Figure 2. Investor value flow based on the individual components of business operations for a matrix organisation.

Investor Value Flow for Matrix Organisation 

The ROI is based on the flow of decisions made by the business on individual components within business operations.

Decisions on capital expenditure, product costs are made by line of business. Decisions on delivery and service to customer are made by market segment. But these decisions are not independent of each other. Long term strategy and mitigating short term risks are interrelated to the market segment and the line of business. 

Figure 3. Profitabilty analysis based on long term strategies by line of business.

Profit & Loss statement by Line of Business  

The profit & loss metrics are based on the market segment and line of business. Figure 3, line of business dashboard, shows investor value flow to net profit based on capital expenditure. This is an indicator of long term strategies. Showing total operating profit based on mitigating short term risks and total profitability for the reporting period.

To seperate data and decision the business must also be able to seperate the cost by line of business to deliver the goods & services and the revenue stream by market segment.

Operations Dashboard

The metric used to measure operating performance is EBITDA as the depreciation and amortisation deals with the initial capital expenditure based on the line of business. The driver of EBITDA is revenue, revenue is generated by market segment.

Figure 4. Operations Dashboard by Market Segment.

Operations Dashboard  

The operation dashboard is an indicator of short term strategies are in line with the business’s long term strategy and will give a clear indicator of operating costs by market segment. Metrics are a combination of market segment and line of business.

Figure 5. Level 2 Operations dashboard by Market by Line of business.

Enterprise Dashboard 

The business is now able to separate decision and the metric by market segment, by line of business and by operating division.

The dashboard will allow each solid block in Figure 5 to be drilled down further into individual line items of the P&L of market segment and of line of business.

The dashboard will also allow the metrics to be roll up to Figure 3, by Line of business. Figure 6 shows the P&L to net profit. The operations is the consolidation of Figure 5.
 
Figure 6. Profitability analysis based on long term strategies by Market segment and Line of business

Profitability Analysis for Total Operations by Line of Business 

Conclusion

The operations dashboard will analyse decisions made by market segment and line of business to mitigate short term risks in the operating divisions using profitability analysis. The dashboard will be able to identify all items related to the goods & services provided to the customer and analyse of the mix of market segment and line of business.

The further analysis below will add further depth into the dashboard to be a management reporting system.
 

Further Analysis

1. Cost analysis
- Cost allocation
- Shared and dedicated cost
- Incremental and fixed costs
- Capacity Costing
- Cost recovery of capital expenditure

2. Key performance indicator analysis
- Revenue units
- Costs units

3. Budget, Target and Forecast analysis
- 5, 10 year plans
- Annual budgets
- Quarterly, monthly, weekly

4. Historical analysis
- Business Plan
- Year to Year
- Quarter to Quarter

5. Strategic analysis
- Long term
- Short term
- OPEX vs CAPEX

6. *** Management reporting system ***

 

Next post for Dashboard ->  Internal Transfer Rates

 

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Can data analytics stimulate your imagination?

A blogger writing about data analytics. Where to begin? I start researching the subject that has come so easily to me in life. Why do I like working in data analytics? After many false starts, I came across the “Did you know?” series on YouTube. There are many versions and different themes. The first, “The progression of information technology” researched by Karl Fisch and the second by AndromedasWake’s Channel.

Now after looking at that with eyes and mouth open with the pumping beat in the background, let’s take a breath and look at what we found out in the last 5 minutes. (Additional information has been updated from teachertube, Social media revolution)

The People
China total population 1,300,000,000.
(Imagine an auditorium with 1300 people and then imagine another 1 million of these auditoriums :-o )

US total population less than India – 25% population with the highest IQ’s

Technical information doubling every 2 years

Today learner will have 10-14 jobs by the time they reach 38yrs old
¼ people employed < 1 year
½ people employed < 5 yrs

2010 - top 10 jobs did not exists in 2004

1/8 married couples in the US met online

In the last 5 minutes, US – 67 babies, China – 274 babies, India – 395 babies

The world is changing as it should. We won’t be able to say to our children “What do you want to be when you grow up?” And the first touch with our life partner may be over cyberspace and not in person.

The Technology
Text Messages
1992 - First sent
Today - Sent everyday exceeds the population of the planet

Google searches
2006 – 2.7 billion a month
Today – 31 billion

Years to reach 50 million
Radio - 38 years
TV - 13 years
Internet - 4 years
iPod - 3 years
FB - less than 9 months (100 million users)
iPod apps - 9 months (1 billion hits)

FB  a country it would be 4th largest between the US and Indonesia but China Qzone larger with over 300 million using there services

Internet devices
1984 - 1,000
(Remember where you were and what type of computer you were using)
1992 - 1,000,000
2008 - 1,000,000,000

Data transfer – 14 trillions (short – 10^12, long – 10^18) bits per second
CD’s = 2,660 per second
Phone calls = 210 million per second

2013 – computer with the computational power of human brain
2049 – computer with the computational power of the entire human species

In the last 5 minutes, 694,000 songs downloaded illegally (I can honestly say I have never downloaded a song illegally :-) )

Technology has made us find different ways of reaching out to more and more people in a shorter time. We no longer have to wait for the news, the news now comes to us. I did not know about MJ’s death until well into the late afternoon when we knew in the early morning. So goes to show if you do turn everything off you may never know but you will eventually find out using one of the mediums, it was FB.

The Knowledge
Words – 540,000 (English language)
                 5x more than in Shakespeare’s time

New York Times – one week is more than information than a lifetime in the 18th century.

Unique information this year 4 exabytes (4×10^19) will be more than the previous 5,000 years.

Wikipedia – 13 million articles
New articles - 156.23 per hour

Blogs – 2,000,000,000 (Can you hear me?)
               54% post content or tweet daily

The people and the technology have given us an amazing knowledge base. Everybody wants to share information, even me! ( makes you wonder what did all the ADD people do before the internet?)

Whether or not you believe the numbers is a totally different question (and won’t be discussed in this forum). What we have done here is all to do with the numbers. We are comparing where we are now to where we once were. Another title for this series is called “Shift Happens”. We are comparing our population change, our technology growth, our extensive knowledge and how we transfer this knowledge all around the world. The numbers show that we have been able to achieve so much in such a short time and the ability to achieve so much more.

 

The AndromedasWake’s version of Did you know? This one made me think about the variances we have in our numbers.(The last 1min 15secs are pretty pictures)

The Universe
Age – aprrox. 13.7 billion years
Size – expands 93 billion light years, 3 dimensions - it has no edge or centre, Matter & energy - less than 5% is detectable
(What is the other 95%?), 100 billion galaxies, septillions (short, 10^24, long, 10^42, so many zeros :-| , doesn’t matter which scale) of stars
Birth – can be reckoned to 10 tredecillionths (short, 10^42 or long, 10^72) of a second before time began (Can we fathom that amount of time?)
No one knows what happen prior to this time (nothing to measure :-( )

The Knowledge
Sun – light generated takes 10,000 years to reach the surface from the centre.
Exoplanet - twice the size of Jupiter and orbits its sun in 3.2 earth days.
(All 4 seasons in 3.2 days)
Shooting stars – millions occur everyday
Neutron star – rotates at 716 times per second, the equator surface achieving 24% the speed of light
Gammar ray burst – releases as much energy in a few seconds than the sun in it’s lifetime
Milkyway – 15 satellite galaxies orbiting
Venus – one day is longer than its year
Saturn – density is so low, the entire planet would float on water
Pluto – water ice is harder than steel

In contrast to the first Did you know, no thump, thump, thump in the background. And also the contrast in the numbers and how much we don’t know. We only know what we can measure and compare to what is known here and now.

Imagine the time light being generated from the sun’s centre today and reaches the surface. What amount of knowledge will we have accumulated? Will we be able to harness all that energy out there? Will we be able to transmit as much data as an exoplanet’s orbit or a neutron star’s rotatation? Will we have the answer to the Before Time question? Too many questions, known and unknown, to be asked ;-) .

The numbers I deal with daily, of course, do not bring out one’s imagination as the one’s we have seen today. But, it is the numbers that reveal the questions and it also the numbers that will show our achievements. This is why I am passionate about data analytics :-) . Yes, some call me mad but data analytics is not boring. 8-)

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